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I am still convinced that Scotty McCreery will win and that the only one positioned to upset him is James Durbin. There are seven contestants left in the season described by the judges as the most talented ever. In predicting who will win rather than analyzing their vocal abilities and styles it is more effective to determine how organized their voters are. When you Google Lauren Alaina compared to Haley Reinhart Haley has been googled more and voted for less. http://www.google.com/trends?q=haley+reinhart%2C+lauren+alaina&ctab=0&geo=us Stefano Langone and Jacob Lusk are the least googled male contestants, yet it was Casey Abrams that was saved from elimination. Casey's Google Trends skyrocketed at the beginning of the competition but that seems to be because of his hospitalization since he is now in the top of the pack, but not leading it. http://www.google.com/trends?q=casey+abrams%2C+james+durbin%2C+scotty+mccreery%2C+stefano+langone%2C+jacob+lusk&ctab=0&geo=us&geor=all&date=mtd&sort=0 If you look at Twitter and Facebook followers and hometown support Scotty McCreery still looks like the winner. Scotty McCreery - Twitter followers: 91,833 - FB 67,168 - Klout Score 80 Scotty McCreery has town support back in Garner, North Carolina. Unfortunately this area was hit by storms this week and may need some help from the rest of us. This same area produced Anoop Desai and Kellie Pickler, but seems going all out in support for Scotty. They are having "Fan of the Week" contest, "encouraging residents and businesses in the area to show their support for our hometown "American Idol" finalist by creating and publicly displaying their own Scotty decorations, artwork or banners." Lowes Foods, the grocery store where Scotty was a bag boy, has supplied his weekly Watch Parties with the most fabulous cup cake cakes I have ever seen. Lowes is also reminding people to vote at the bottom of the register receipts and has a Twitter account to support him. Another local bakery has named a cupcake after him. Sara Coleman of The Cupcake Shoppe in Raleigh calls it the "Butterscotch Scotty". Bettersworld.com is also predicting that Scotty will win. "Our record on these predictions has been outstanding. We were only wrong about one finale and that was the year Adam Lambert lost. A further investigation into that years voting revealed that perhaps Adam Lambert didn't get a fair shake, but that's water under the bridge." Anyone who has read my book, American Idol Vote Scam knows that the AT&T assisted voting machine put together by Kris Allen's Kick Awesome Task Force in Arkansas was unbeatable. Never in the history of American Idol was there such a statewide organization. All Season 8 contestants were misplaced. Like Bettorsworld said, "that's water under the bridge." Bettorsworld sees James Durbin in second place as I do. They are feeling the pulse of social media, like I do, and realize James Durbin is not as popular but they are missing the fact that the Autism and Tourette groups may come through for James in a big way. An interesting observation is that Chick-fil-A is at Scotty's Watch Parties. It is nothing similar to their presence at Kris Allen's parties where they gave away free food for a year to the highest voters. Scotty does not have sixty 10 man voting teams pledging to power text for two or four hours. Scotty's parties are being held on Thursdays rather than Wednesday and Thursdays like Allen's. If Scotty wins it will be a clean win. Prizes, free phones and free food will not prompt the vote. James Durbin's phone lines will not be blocked. The voting will not be assisted by AT&T. Besides that, Scotty is the most popular remaining contestant and should win. Garner, North Carolina is playing fair under the American Idol rules of unlimited voting. http://www.lowesfoods.com/index.cfm/aboutus/pressroom/lowes-foods-makes-cupcakes-in-support-of-scotty-mccreery/ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euKwAxkLES0 Then there are always the fan shirts in any good American Idol campaign: http://scottyfans.com/Shirts.aspx Twitter and Facebook Casey Abrams - Twitter followers: 84,635 - FB 30,412 Klout Score 79 Casey's hometown is Idyllwild, California. Although Casey is second in Twitter followers and third for Facebook friends he does not seem to have organized support in his hometown or among any group If there is any that I have missed please let me know. Lauren Alaina - Twitter followers: 73,973 - FB 22,513 Klout Score 77 Lauren, from Rossville, Georgia has Watch Parties at the Acoustic Café in Ringgold. Her support is nowhere near that of Scotty McCreery's. From what I can tell, no one has had to find a bigger venue and no one has named a cupcake after her. Where are the cupcakes for this kid? Rossville bakers are you listening? James Durbin - Twitter followers: 63,240 - FB 33,257 Klout Score 76 James Durbin's hometown Santa Cruz, California Watch Parties are smaller than Scotty's. They have a great time watching James perform at Pizza My Heart: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxrntTHGhU4 James may have a bigger weapon. Autism Speaks is supporting James, who has been diagnosed with Asperger and Tourette syndrome, because Asperger syndrome is a milder form of Autism. When an alarming 1 in 60 boys and 1 in 100 children in the US are now being diagnosed with autism spectrum disorders it is a very large support group. It has been reported that as a child James was medicated for stress and a sleep disorder. Unfortunately many of the medications given to young children can cause Tourette syndrome as a side effect. James has become a role model. "People are seeing that Tourette's has no affect on his talent -- that it's not holding him back in any way," says Yaffa, a Menlo Park resident whose 11-year-old son, Brian, has the syndrome. "That's a great message. It's something that gives parents hope, and their kids hope." James is inspiring people with Aspergar and Tourette syndrome like the young boy in this video. http://www.fox23news.com/news/local/story/Local-kid-with-TS-gets-Idol-inspiration/FFD0BKmiGU-3tqAfDAvMBw.cspx With both Autism and Tourette groups supporting him, James may be unbeatable. Unlike the two previous year's winners, the seven reaming contestants have talent. There will be no outcry that the wrong person won this year. It will just be the person who can garner the most votes with the flawed system of unlimited voting. http://blog.autismspeaks.org/2011/04/06/join-the-austim-speaks-james-durbin-voting-club-2/ Naturally there are James Durbin shirts: http://provocatees.spreadshirt.com/the-james-durbin-campaign-C86095 Stefano Langone - Twitter followers: 56,533 - FB 16,949 Klout Score 80 Stefano currently resides in Kent, Washington. Stefano does not seem to have much local fan activity in Kent. Originally from Arkansas, he may have had better fan organization if he remained in his birth state. Arkansas takes care of their own. I did find an ambitious fan video here: http://stefano-langone.com/2011/04/12/video-fans-messages-for-fano/ Haley Reinhart - Twitter followers: 47,967 FB 2,927 Klout Score 73 Back in Wheeling, Illinois Haley is getting attention. Haley stems from a musical family, her daddy is a guitar man and her mama is the singer in the band. It sounds like the makings of a country song. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVgcxNTAbuM&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QI8RiTRZhE&feature=related The local news story: http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20110413/news/704139989/ Haley's hometown is gearing up support for her. Haley's watch and vote parties are not as big or organized as Scotty McCreery's but they have helped her make it to the Top 7. Jacob Lusk - Twitter followers: 34,467 FB 12,019 Klout Score 71 Jacob is in the bottom of the pack in Twitter followers if that is an indication of popularity. Keep in mind that a less popular contestant with more ardent voters can win. (Remember Kris Allen!) Jacob Lusk has a video, Vote 50+ for Jacob Lusk http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I36IyBnQfAw Jacob is also getting attention from fans of Christian music. This week they ranked his performance #1. Tonight we will hear the Top 7 sing for their lives. No matter how hard they try and how good they sing ultimately it will be a voting contest. Just ask Adam Lambert, Crystal Bowersox or Pia Toscano. Interesting fact Pia Toscano now leads in Twitter followers: 118,172 Before Pia's elimination she was in the middle of the group. Note: Haley has very few Facebook followers, only 2,927, compared to Scotty's 67,168, for instance. I do not know why this number is so low or if it is correct. Stefano is listed as having a Klout Score of 80, which does not make sense when compared to the other contestants Twitter and Facebook followers. Resources: Bettorsworld: http://www.bettorsworld.com/idol-winner.htm The official Twitter and Facebook accounts of the seven remaining Idols. Jacob Lusk: Christian Power Ranking: http://www.one21music.com/tag/jacob-lusk/ Read about the alarming rates of autism: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-kirby/do-you-believe-that-one-i_b_310378.html http://www.insidebayarea.com/ci_17769975?source=most_emailed http://www.garnercitizen.com/2011/04/15/town-sponsors-scotty-fan-of-the-week/ Lauren's Watch Party: http://www.walkermessenger.com/view/full_story/12370024/article-Family-and-friends-gather-for-%E2%80%9CAmerican-Idol%E2%80%9D-watch-party?instance=home_news_lead_story Raleigh storm: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2011/04/17/2229642/tornadoes-devastate-area-041611.html Red Cross http://www.triangleredcross.org/GiveHope/Donate/GiveLocal.aspx Autism Support http://www.wrongplanet.net/postt153587.html Post Your Comments and Follow Me On Twitter @KMKOlsch |
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